A summer heatwave could have killed more than 70,000 people, according to new research. Experts have found that there were likely 70,066 heat-related deaths from the scorching temperatures in 2022.
This is over 7,000 more than the 62,862 deaths scientists had initially thought had happened as a result of the heat. To get their results, the research team at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health collected daily temperatures and mortality records from 147 regions in 16 European countries.
They then analysed this data in comparison with daily, weekly, two-weekly and monthly figures. Their analysis, published in the journal The Lancet Regional Health, discovered that these weekly, two-weekly and monthly models underestimated the effects of heat and cold as compared to the daily model.
For example, in the period 1998-2004, the daily model estimated an annual cold and heat-related mortality of 290,104 and 39,434 premature deaths, respectively, However the weekly model underestimated these numbers by 8.56 per cent and 21.56 per cent, respectively.
Professor Joan Ballester Claramunt said: “It is important to note that the differences were very small during periods of extreme cold and heat, such as the summer of 2003, when the underestimation by the weekly data model was only 4.62 per cent. In general, we do not find models based on monthly aggregated data useful for estimating the short-term effects of ambient temperatures.
“However, models based on weekly data do offer sufficient precision in mortality estimates to be useful in real-time practice in epidemiological surveillance and to inform public policies such as, for example, the activation of emergency plans for reducing the impact of heat waves and cold spells.”
When studying the summer of 2022, the researchers found that the old study had underestimated heat-related mortality by 10.28 per cent. Professor Ballester noted that weekly data is still a solution that can offer “a good approximation of the estimates obtained using the daily data model” since it is much easier to obtain than daily data.
